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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.46 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.95 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 49% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, Sparta Rotterdam 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights