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AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.59 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 45% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 30%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, PEC Zwolle 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights