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AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 34, as AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.27 xG and NAC Breda 0.80 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against NAC Breda attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 9%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, NAC Breda 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

NAC Breda's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights