AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to AFAS Stadion to face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AZ Alkmaar's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NAC Breda (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward AZ Alkmaar. A 0.60 PPG lead over NAC Breda (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for NAC Breda and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended AZ Alkmaar 1–0 NAC Breda — a AZ Alkmaar win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 63% versus NAC Breda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | NAC Breda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.27 xG and NAC Breda 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.164 / defence 0.903 | NAC Breda attack 0.684 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.289. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 67 games and NAC Breda's last 67.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 9%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.47 | Draw 4.38 | NAC Breda 11.05. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (68%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 60% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 34 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.27 / NAC Breda 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.164 / def 0.903 | NAC Breda attack 0.684 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.80
NAC Breda xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 34) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 68% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 9% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.16x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.68x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 67 games and NAC Breda's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
68%
1.47
23%
4.38
9%
11.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.06
0.80
NAC Breda xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
11.05
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
10%
9.66
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
1%
106.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.80 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 67 games, going 30W 18D 19L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.91 PPG from 67 outings (14W 19D 34L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 16W 10D 7L across their last 33 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.52 points per game from their last 33 away games (3W 8D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 0.99 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 18D 19L in their last 67 games (1.61 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 14W 19D 34L in their last 67 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NAC Breda away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.76 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, NAC Breda have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 70%, NAC Breda 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AZ Alkmaar and 54% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 46% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 54% of NAC Breda's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 73% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 34, as AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.27 xG and NAC Breda 0.80 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against NAC Breda attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 9%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, NAC Breda 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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