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AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.87 xG and NAC Breda 0.86 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 16%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.76 PPG, NAC Breda 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights