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Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heerenveen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 3-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.97 xG and Heerenveen 1.34 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heerenveen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Heerenveen attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 49% | Draw 27% | Heerenveen 24%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Heerenveen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Heerenveen's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.64 PPG, Heerenveen 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights