🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Heerenveen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 4-1 at AFAS Stadion, Conference League Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.76 xG and Heerenveen 0.80 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Heerenveen attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 58% | Draw 27% | Heerenveen 15%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 63%, Heerenveen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Heerenveen's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Heerenveen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights