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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Groningen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Groningen 4-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.88 xG and Groningen 1.01 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Groningen attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 56% | Draw 25% | Groningen 18%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Groningen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights