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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 15, as AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.49 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.68 xG, a combined 4.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.25 / defence 1.22 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 56% | Draw 19% | GO Ahead Eagles 26%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, GO Ahead Eagles 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.69 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights