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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Fortuna Sittard 2-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.50 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 49% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 28%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, Fortuna Sittard 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.60 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights