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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.50 xG and Feyenoord 1.65 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Feyenoord outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 0.80, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 35% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 41%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Feyenoord 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Feyenoord's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.79 PPG, Feyenoord 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights