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Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out AZ Alkmaar 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat AZ Alkmaar 0-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.48 xG and Feyenoord 1.68 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 42%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Feyenoord's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.82. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights