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Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out FC Volendam 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat FC Volendam 1-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.56 xG and FC Volendam 1.03 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.20 / defence 1.23 against FC Volendam attack 0.59 / defence 1.28, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 70% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 13%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, FC Volendam 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.69 PPG, FC Volendam 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights