PEC Zwolle 1-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.90 conceded. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: PEC Zwolle 4W, Fortuna Sittard 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 4–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 57% versus Fortuna Sittard 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 51% | Fortuna Sittard 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.59 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.795 / defence 0.971 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.905 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.432. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 PEC Zwolle games / 49 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 30%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 3.33. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 40% | Fortuna Sittard 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.59 / Fortuna Sittard 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.795 / def 0.971 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.905 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Fortuna Sittard xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 45% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (6 meetings): PEC Zwolle 4W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.80) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.91x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.05
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.84
1.26
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.26 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 15D 20L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 1.20 PPG from 49 outings (16W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.20 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (4W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.18 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 14W 15D 20L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.46 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 1-4 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 5, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 46%, Fortuna Sittard 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PEC Zwolle) and 50% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of PEC Zwolle's games and 67% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 50% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Fortuna Sittard 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Fortuna Sittard 1-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.59 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.26 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 30%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 51%, Fortuna Sittard 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.16 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.