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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AZ Alkmaar and Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar and Ajax finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.76 xG and Ajax 2.20 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ajax landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Ajax attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 31% | Draw 20% | Ajax 48%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, Ajax 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights