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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Almere City FC and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC and NAC Breda finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.43 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.37 against NAC Breda attack 0.72 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 41% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 33%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, NAC Breda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights