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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Almere City FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Almere City FC 0-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.84 xG and Ajax 2.39 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ajax landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.47 against Ajax attack 1.25 / defence 0.70, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 11% | Draw 18% | Ajax 71%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 51%, Ajax 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ajax's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights