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Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Waalwijk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Waalwijk 2-1 at Johan Cruijff ArenA, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.81 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ajax fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.26 / defence 0.79 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 1.30, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 74% | Draw 15% | Waalwijk 11%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 74%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights