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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Telstar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Telstar 2-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.11 xG and Telstar 0.99 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Telstar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 62% | Draw 23% | Telstar 15%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 56%, Telstar 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Telstar's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.79. Form held, and they took the win. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights