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Ajax cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over NAC Breda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat NAC Breda 3-1 at Johan Cruijff ArenA, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.61 xG and NAC Breda 0.72 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.30 / defence 0.75 against NAC Breda attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 78% | Draw 15% | NAC Breda 8%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 69%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

NAC Breda's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights