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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Feyenoord.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Feyenoord 2-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.20 xG and Feyenoord 1.73 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against Feyenoord attack 1.39 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 27% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 50%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 57%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Feyenoord's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajax 2.12 PPG, Feyenoord 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights