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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Feyenoord 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Feyenoord 2-1 at Johan Cruijff ArenA, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.75 xG and Feyenoord 1.34 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.19 / defence 0.77 against Feyenoord attack 1.25 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 47% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 29%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 74%, Feyenoord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Feyenoord's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajax 1.91 PPG, Feyenoord 2.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights