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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat FC Volendam 2-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.94 xG and FC Volendam 0.65 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against FC Volendam attack 0.52 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 68% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 12%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 58%, FC Volendam 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC Volendam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajax 2.11 PPG, FC Volendam 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights