🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Ajax and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 2-2 at Johan Cruijff ArenA, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.90 xG and AZ Alkmaar 0.88 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.31 / defence 0.66 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 61% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 17%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 69%, AZ Alkmaar 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajax 2.00 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights