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Willem II and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II and Waalwijk finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Quarter-finals, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.55 xG and Waalwijk 1.21 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.84 / defence 0.73 against Waalwijk attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 30%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 53%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.29 PPG, Waalwijk 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights