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Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Fri 20 Feb 2026

19:00

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

37%

Willem II

2.71

29%

Draw

3.43

34%

Vitesse

2.95

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.4%

Home win

0 – 1

9.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.29

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.52

1.23

Vitesse xG

37%
29%
34%
Willem IIDrawVitesse

2.71

37%

Home win

3.43

29%

Draw

2.95

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.91

48%

BTTS No

2.10

Clean Sheet

29%

Willem II

3.41

28%

Vitesse

3.63

Win to Nil

11%

Willem II

9.25

9%

Vitesse

10.70

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.1 9.9 6.1 2.5 0.8 0.2
1 10.4 12.8 7.8 3.2 1.0 0.2
2 6.7 8.2 5.1 2.1 0.6 0.2
3 2.9 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.289
λ Away (xG) 1.227
Total xG 2.516
League avg home goals 1.718
League avg away goals 1.483
Willem II attack strength 0.821
Willem II defence strength 0.879
Vitesse attack strength 0.941
Vitesse defence strength 0.914
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 26 / 65