Willem II 3-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Jong Utrecht travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Koning Willem II Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Willem II carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Willem II, 0 for Jong Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 53% versus Jong Utrecht 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 56% | Jong Utrecht 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.33 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.177 / defence 0.876 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.629 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.318. Data: 36 Willem II games / 74 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 73% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 10%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Jong Utrecht 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Jong Utrecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 73% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 47% | xG Willem II 2.33 / Jong Utrecht 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.177 / def 0.876 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.629 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Willem II (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Jong Utrecht xG
47%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Willem II vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Willem II 3 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Willem II vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 73% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Willem II and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Willem II and Jong Utrecht in?
Willem II (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Willem II's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
73%
1.36
17%
5.98
10%
10.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.06
0.73
Jong Utrecht xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.98
17%
Draw
10.11
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
10%
10.30
Win to Nil
35%
2.82
1%
104.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Willem II and 0.73 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 27W 16D 27L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 17W 9D 44L from 70 games, 0.86 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.77 PPG from 35 outings (19W 5D 11L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 5D 22L from 35 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.99 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 27W 16D 27L in their last 70 games (1.39 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 17W 9D 44L in their last 70 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Willem II's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.77 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Jong Utrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
3
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 49%, Jong Utrecht 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Willem II) and 63% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Willem II's recent matches and 60% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Willem II's matches and 63% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Willem II and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong Utrecht 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.33 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.73 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.63 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 73% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 10%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 56%, Jong Utrecht 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.