Jong Ajax 1-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Jong AZ travel to Sportpark De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jong Ajax carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong Ajax, 0 for Jong AZ and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 77% and Jong AZ 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 68% | Jong AZ 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 2.43 xG and Jong AZ 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.311 / defence 1.325 | Jong AZ attack 0.949 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.318. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 2.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 74 Jong Ajax games / 74 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 55% | Draw 19% | Jong AZ 26%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | Jong AZ 3.85. The model has a clear lean to Jong Ajax (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 55% | Draw 19% | Jong AZ 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 74% | xG Jong Ajax 2.43 / Jong AZ 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.311 / def 1.325 | Jong AZ attack 0.949 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Jong AZ xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Jong Ajax 1 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 55% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 26% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Jong Ajax and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (1.31) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
55%
1.82
19%
5.21
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
4.09
1.66
Jong AZ xG
1.82
55%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
9%
11.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
2%
44.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.66 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax come into this having played 74 games, going 30W 19D 25L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.22 PPG from 74 outings (25W 15D 34L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.47 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Ajax's home form reads 19W 9D 9L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.95 points per game from 37 outings (10W 5D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.31 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 30W 19D 25L in their last 74 games (1.47 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 25W 15D 34L in their last 74 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.78 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Ajax have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2023, when Jong AZ won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Jong AZ have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 81%, Jong AZ 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Jong Ajax and 54% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Jong Ajax's games and 46% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jong Ajax's matches and 54% of Jong AZ's.
Do Jong Ajax and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Jong Ajax 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 2.43 xG and Jong AZ 1.66 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.31 / defence 1.32 against Jong AZ attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 55% | Draw 19% | Jong AZ 26%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 68%, Jong AZ 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.47 PPG, Jong AZ 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.