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Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Jong PSV U21 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.44 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.35 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.79 / defence 0.83 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.07 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 39% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 35%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Jong PSV U21 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.17 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights