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Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Fri 3 Apr 2026

19:00

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

39%

Willem II

2.54

25%

Draw

3.95

35%

Jong PSV U21

2.83

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

8.9%

Home win

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.44

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.79

1.35

Jong PSV U21 xG

39%
25%
35%
Willem IIDrawJong PSV U21

2.54

39%

Home win

3.95

25%

Draw

2.83

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.77

44%

BTTS No

2.30

Clean Sheet

26%

Willem II

3.85

24%

Jong PSV U21

4.20

Win to Nil

10%

Willem II

9.80

8%

Jong PSV U21

11.89

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 8.3 5.6 2.5 0.9 0.2
1 8.9 12.0 8.1 3.6 1.2 0.3
2 6.4 8.6 5.8 2.6 0.9 0.2
3 3.0 4.1 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.436
λ Away (xG) 1.349
Total xG 2.785
League avg home goals 1.526
League avg away goals 1.508
Willem II attack strength 0.792
Willem II defence strength 0.835
Jong PSV U21 attack strength 1.072
Jong PSV U21 defence strength 1.188
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 33 / 71