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Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Jong AZ 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.56 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.79 / defence 0.75 against Jong AZ attack 1.20 / defence 1.23, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 43% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 33%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 51%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong AZ's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.24 PPG, Jong AZ 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights