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Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 37

Kick-off

Fri 17 Apr 2026

19:00

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

43%

Willem II

2.35

25%

Draw

4.06

33%

Jong AZ

3.05

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

1 – 0

8.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.56

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.90

1.34

Jong AZ xG

43%
25%
33%
Willem IIDrawJong AZ

2.35

43%

Home win

4.06

25%

Draw

3.05

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.72

42%

BTTS No

2.40

Clean Sheet

26%

Willem II

3.82

21%

Jong AZ

4.75

Win to Nil

11%

Willem II

8.96

7%

Jong AZ

14.48

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.5 7.4 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.2
1 8.6 11.5 7.7 3.4 1.2 0.3
2 6.7 9.0 6.0 2.7 0.9 0.2
3 3.5 4.7 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
4 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2
5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.558
λ Away (xG) 1.339
Total xG 2.897
League avg home goals 1.599
League avg away goals 1.483
Willem II attack strength 0.793
Willem II defence strength 0.750
Jong AZ attack strength 1.204
Jong AZ defence strength 1.229
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 36 / 74