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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Willem II and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.39 xG and FC OSS 1.30 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against FC OSS attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 39% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 35%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 54%, FC OSS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 0.98 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights