🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Willem II cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Dordrecht 2-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.05 xG and Dordrecht 1.33 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.73 / defence 1.00 against Dordrecht attack 0.92 / defence 0.83, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 29% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 43%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Dordrecht's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights