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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Willem II and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II and Den Bosch finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.75 xG and Den Bosch 1.03 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 0.77 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 54% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 22%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.13 PPG, Den Bosch 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights