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De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Willem II 0-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.37 xG and De Graafschap 1.31 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 0.78 against De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 38% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 36%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 53%, De Graafschap 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

De Graafschap's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights