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Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Sat 28 Mar 2026

17:45

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

38%

Willem II

2.60

26%

Draw

3.86

36%

De Graafschap

2.81

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.4%

Home win

0 – 1

9.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.37

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.68

1.31

De Graafschap xG

38%
26%
36%
Willem IIDrawDe Graafschap

2.60

38%

Home win

3.86

26%

Draw

2.81

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.83

45%

BTTS No

2.20

Clean Sheet

27%

Willem II

3.71

25%

De Graafschap

3.95

Win to Nil

10%

Willem II

9.63

9%

De Graafschap

11.08

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.8 9.0 5.9 2.6 0.8 0.2
1 9.4 12.3 8.1 3.5 1.2 0.3
2 6.4 8.4 5.5 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 2.9 3.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.373
λ Away (xG) 1.310
Total xG 2.683
League avg home goals 1.547
League avg away goals 1.513
Willem II attack strength 0.870
Willem II defence strength 0.782
De Graafschap attack strength 1.108
De Graafschap defence strength 1.020
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 32 / 70