Waalwijk 1-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Waalwijk at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host VVV Venlo at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Waalwijk are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VVV Venlo trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 64% versus VVV Venlo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.67 xG and VVV Venlo 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.924 / defence 1.195 | VVV Venlo attack 0.908 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.434. Data: 18 Waalwijk games / 56 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 41% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 36%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | VVV Venlo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 41% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Waalwijk 1.67 / VVV Venlo 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.924 / def 1.195 | VVV Venlo attack 0.908 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.55
VVV Venlo xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo part of?
Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 41% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and VVV Venlo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and VVV Venlo in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waalwijk's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.22
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.22
1.55
VVV Venlo xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.55 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 12D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (18W 6D 28L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 0.98 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 9W 5D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (9W 2D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.23 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 13W 12D 27L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 18W 6D 28L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or VVV Venlo away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.28 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
0
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and VVV Venlo?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when VVV Venlo 0-3 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 56%, VVV Venlo 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Waalwijk and 72% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 48% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Waalwijk's matches and 72% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Waalwijk and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.67 xG and VVV Venlo 1.55 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against VVV Venlo attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 41% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 36%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.98 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.