Waalwijk 1-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Vitesse travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 September 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.20 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Waalwijk have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Vitesse have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Waalwijk winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Waalwijk and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 56% versus Vitesse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 62% | Vitesse 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.87 xG and Vitesse 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.856 / defence 0.953 | Vitesse attack 0.863 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.244. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Waalwijk games / 39 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 57% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 20%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Vitesse 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 40% | Vitesse 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 57% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Waalwijk 1.87 / Vitesse 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.856 / def 0.953 | Vitesse attack 0.863 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Vitesse xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Vitesse kick off?
Waalwijk vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 16 September 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Waalwijk vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Vitesse part of?
Waalwijk vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 57% chance of winning, Vitesse a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Waalwijk and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 4W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Vitesse in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.86) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.46
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.90
1.02
Vitesse xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
3%
31.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.02 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 8W 8D 23L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse's form line: 11W 11D 17L from 39 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 0.82 PPG, Vitesse on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.38 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 8W 8D 23L in their last 39 games (0.82 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Vitesse away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.16 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Waalwijk's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Waalwijk
3
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
From 9 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 4, Vitesse have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Vitesse 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 47%, Vitesse 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Waalwijk and 74% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 32% of games; Vitesse in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 58% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Waalwijk's matches and 74% of Vitesse's.
Do Waalwijk and Vitesse tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Vitesse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Waalwijk and Vitesse drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.87 xG and Vitesse 1.02 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Vitesse attack 0.86 / defence 1.28, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 57% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 20%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 62%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.82 PPG, Vitesse 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.