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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out MVV 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat MVV 1-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 2.06 xG and MVV 1.36 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. MVV landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against MVV attack 0.72 / defence 1.22, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 54% | Draw 21% | MVV 25%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, MVV 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

MVV's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.96 PPG, MVV 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights