🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Jong PSV U21 4-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.82 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.54 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 45% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 33%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 69%, Jong PSV U21 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.13 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights