Waalwijk 2-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 29 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 3W 3D 4L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Ajax (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Waalwijk's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Jong Ajax's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 60% versus Jong Ajax 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 62% | Jong Ajax 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.63 xG and Jong Ajax 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.770 / defence 1.088 | Jong Ajax attack 0.915 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.385. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Waalwijk games / 46 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 43% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 33%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 60% | Jong Ajax 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 43% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Waalwijk 1.63 / Jong Ajax 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.770 / def 1.088 | Jong Ajax attack 0.915 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Jong Ajax xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 29 September 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Waalwijk 2 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax part of?
Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 43% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Waalwijk and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and Jong Ajax in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.77x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.92x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
43%
2.30
24%
4.15
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.00
1.38
Jong Ajax xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.38 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 9W 9D 24L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax's form line: 9W 9D 24L from 42 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Waalwijk against 0.86 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 3D 16L from 21 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Ajax's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.05 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 games (0.86 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Jong Ajax away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.10 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
0
Draws
0
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong Ajax?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Jong Ajax have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Jong Ajax 0-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Jong Ajax?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 52%, Jong Ajax 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Waalwijk) and 57% (Jong Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 29% of games; Jong Ajax in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Jong Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 48% of Jong Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Waalwijk's matches and 57% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Waalwijk and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out Jong Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Jong Ajax 2-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.63 xG and Jong Ajax 1.38 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against Jong Ajax attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 43% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 33%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 62%, Jong Ajax 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.86 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.