Waalwijk vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Waalwijk. A 0.70 PPG lead over De Graafschap (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, De Graafschap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waalwijk lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 4–2 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 78% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 65% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.56 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.341 / defence 1.037 | De Graafschap attack 0.872 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.589. Waalwijk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Waalwijk games / 44 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 62% | Draw 18% | De Graafschap 20%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | De Graafschap 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.00 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 62% | Draw 18% | De Graafschap 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 70% | xG Waalwijk 2.56 / De Graafschap 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.341 / def 1.037 | De Graafschap attack 0.872 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.589 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.44
De Graafschap xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs De Graafschap kick off?
Waalwijk vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap part of?
Waalwijk vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 62% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Waalwijk and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and De Graafschap in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.34) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.87x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
62%
1.62
18%
5.54
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
4.00
1.44
De Graafschap xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
8%
12.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
2%
63.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.44 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 18W 16D 12L from 46 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 16L across 46 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.48 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.83 scored and 1.76 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 18W 16D 12L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or De Graafschap away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.62 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and De Graafschap?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Waalwijk, 71% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Waalwijk and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Waalwijk's games and 71% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Waalwijk's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do Waalwijk and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.