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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Waalwijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Waalwijk 1-4 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.59 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.63 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.05 / defence 1.13 against De Graafschap attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 14/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 37% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 39%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 67%, De Graafschap 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights