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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Almere City FC 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.33 xG and Almere City FC 1.68 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Almere City FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/2 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 31% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 46%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 64%, Almere City FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Almere City FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.81 PPG, Almere City FC 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights