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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Waalwijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Waalwijk 1-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.02 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.53 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.77 / defence 0.95 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.21 / defence 0.77, drawn from 7/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 25% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 49%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 61%, ADO Den Haag 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights