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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VVV Venlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat VVV Venlo 1-3 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.61 xG and Jong AZ 1.75 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Jong AZ attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 41%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 58%, Jong AZ 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.20 PPG, Jong AZ 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights