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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VVV Venlo and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo and Excelsior finished level at 1-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 0.81 xG and Excelsior 1.39 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.66 / defence 1.05 against Excelsior attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 20% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 49%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 58%, Excelsior 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.11 PPG, Excelsior 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights