🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

VVV Venlo and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo and De Graafschap finished level at 3-3 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.20 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.79 / defence 0.93 against De Graafschap attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 47%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 59%, De Graafschap 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights