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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over De Graafschap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat De Graafschap 3-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.37 xG and De Graafschap 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against De Graafschap attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 43% | Draw 29% | De Graafschap 28%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 59%, De Graafschap 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with VVV Venlo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights